The draw with Mozambique

Yesterday the Eagles drew 0-0 away at Mozambique in our first match of the final phase of African qualifying for the 2010 World Cup. The Mambas scored two goals that were disallowed by the referee, so we should be grateful for the point.

In theory, it is too early to press the panic button. It is, after all, only the first match. The Eagles ALWAYS struggle in World Cup qualifiers; we are rarely conclusively in or out until the final match day. This is normal.

This is also worrying, because the way we perform in World Cup qualifiers leaves little or no room for error.

We squeezed past Cote d'Ivoire on goal difference to qualify for the 1994 World Cup, and pipped Guinea by a point to make it to the 1998 edition. We qualified for the 2002 World Cup thanks to Ghana, who did us a favour by beating Liberia away in Monrovia, which opened the door for us to sneak in by one point. Four years later, in the qualifiers for 2006, we were again praying for another team to do us a favour, hoping Rwanda would beat Angola on the last match-day so we could sneak in again; alas, though they were at home in Kigali, the Rwandans lost by a lone goal, finishing bottom of the group. Angola went to the World Cup.

If you want to know how disorganized our 2006 qualifier campaign was, note that the Nigerian Football Federation, the Nigerian sports media, and most Nigerian fans did not even know CAF was prioritizing the head-to-head rule until we were already on the brink of elimination ... when we were held to a 1-1 draw in our home match against Angola. We had already lost to them away in Luanda, having fielded an under-strength team because we thought they were "minnows" who wouldn't give us any trouble. Suddenly we realized head-to-head was the first tie-breaker, and that our usual surge of heroic victories in the final matches of every series of qualifiers (which happens every time we find ourselves staring elimination in the face) would not be enough to overcome Angola. Even if we won every match (which we did), and by high margins (which we did, 2-5 over Algeria, and 5-0 over Zimbabwe) the Angolans would hold the head-to-head advantage unless SOMEONE beat them, and no one did.

This is what happens when you lose control of your fate. You end up watching matches you have no influence on, and hoping teams that have no motivation (since they are already out) would do you a favour.

For a team like the Eagles that perennially walks a tight-rope in World Cup qualifying, seemingly innocuous match results can (and have) come back to bite us in the end.

It is not a new phenomenon. In the 3-team final stage of qualifying for the 1978 World Cup, Nigeria finished with 3 points, behind Egypt (4 points); Tunisia went to their first World Cup having finished with 5 points.. The heart-breaking thing is we lost our HOME MATCH in Lagos against Tunisia; that one result would have given us 5 points, and left them on 3 points, sending us to the World Cup. Did I mention we were AT HOME?

Fast forward twelve years, and there was dissent in our camp ahead of our 1990 World Cup qualifier away against Gabon; a couple of players ultimately to boycotted the match. We lost 2-1 in Libreville to the Gabonese. I recognize that no team wins all of its matches, and I am in no way disrespecting Gabon's 1990 squad, but it is this sort of away match that ends up deciding your fate. Had we somehow pulled out a victory in Libreville, our final match against mega-rivals Cameroun, away in Yaounde, would have been irrelevant. As it stood, before kickoff in Yaounde, Cameroun would qualify with a win, and Nigeria would have qualified with a draw; after a brusing, vicious encounter (one Nigerian player rushed to hospital, a couple more Nigerians left bleeding) Cameroun had won a ticket to Italia'90 at our expense. They used that ticket well, going on a Cinderella run to the quarterfinals.

Again, I recognize the fact that no team wins always, but too often we have dropped points and acted like it didn't really matter because it was just one match, only to find that it mattered more than we thought.

I hope we don't end up looking back at this weekend's 2010 qualifier against Mozambique, wondering what might have been with two extra points. Our principal rivals this time are Tunisia, seasoned campaigners who know how to grind out the results necessary to get into the World Cup. In fact, with four appearances, they are Africa's second-most frequent World Cup representatives (behind only five-appearance Cameroun). Unlike Guinea or Liberia or even Angola, the Tunisians will not do us any favours. And while we were lucky to escape Maputo with a draw, the Tunisians ground out 3 vital away points in Nairobi against Kenya. If they get another three away points in Maputo later this year, while we content ourselves with another draw in our upcoming match in Nairobi, qualification could get a little complicated.

Last weekend's result in Maputo means two potentially crucial points dropped, and given our history in the qualifiers (and the fact that the Mambas had two goals called off) we need to be really worried. True, the Eagles have declined in recent years and are no longer the dominant force we used to be. True, second- and third-tier teams in Africa have dramatically improved of recent, with Senegal making the 2002 World Cup, Togo and Angola making it in 2006, not to mention the slew of upsets and shocks in the first weekend of final qualifying for the 2010 World Cup. And true, the final phase of qualifying will be tougher than the first phase where we won 6 matches out of 6 against weaker teams.

But once we recognize and acknowledge your limitations and obstacles, we should not run or hide from them, or use them as an excuse not to try harder. If we want a place in South Africa in 2010, we are going to have to work incredibly hard to get it. In fact, we have to take a page out of the book of the Tunisians, and learn how to use hard work, tactics and team ethic to make up for a lack of stars -- because we don't have superstars anymore. We have got to study our opponents in excruciating detail, and figure out simple but effective strategies to grind out 3-point results from here to the final match-day. Let us not do the usual thing of waiting until elimination creeps up on us, only to post a run of heroic results while praying that some other team does us a favour.

The priority in Nigerian football right now is to qualify for the World Cup. The upcoming Under-21 and Under-17 World Championships are NOT IMPORTANT. Heck, if there is any player currently on a youth team who could add some extra effectiveness to the senior side, draft him immediately.

Up Eagles! Up Nigeria!