Jailed in Akwa Ibom

Editor's Note: This post should have been put up on the blog days ago

This is a follow-up to this post on violence across the country by thugs on the payroll of the four major parties (PDP, ANPP, ACN and CPC).

The gubernatorial candidate of the Action Congress of Nigeria in Akwa Ibom State was been arrested, arraigned and denied bail subsequent to election-related mass violence in Akwa Ibom.

The arrest of James Akpanudoedehe does not imply sudden governmental interest in prosecuting the perpetrators of political violence. On the contrary, the action is part and parcel of the political rivalries that generated violence in the first place.

The current governor of Akwa Ibom State, Godswill Akpabio, used to be the political godson of his predecessor, Victor Attah. After eight years mired in allegations of corruption, ex-Governor Attah essentially imposed his godson Akpabio on the state as his successor. But the defining characteristic of the Fourth Republic has been godsons turning against their godfathers once they (godsons) feel the reins of power are securely in their hands. It is so constant a pattern that I am shocked the many godfathers haven't realized the pointlessness of their investments; on the other hand, the inability to learn productive lessons from experience is itself a defining character trait of the Nigerian politician.

Like every other godfather faced with disobedience and betrayal from a godsons, ex-Governor Attah responded by using his political machine to make life difficult (understatement) for Governor Akpabio. The two men, and their respective political machines/alliances have been at war.

James Akpanudoedehe, the arrested ACN candidate in the 2011 Akwa Ibom gubernatorial race, is the new favoured godson of ex-Governor Attah; he is a proxy candidate for the Attah Faction in the denouement of their war with the Akpabio Faction.

The Attah Faction intended to show their strength by making their candidate the PDP nominee, thus forcing Governor Akpabio to leave the PDP and restoring control of the state party machinery to Attah. Unfortunately for them, the Akpabio Faction proved stronger. Or maybe Akpabio won because President Goodluck Jonathan's electoral machine/alliance decided it was better not to anger a man who would remain governor at least until the elections itself; Nigerian governors, with their near-imperial control of state treasuries and government structures, are the single most powerful force in the process of manipulating the results of elections, so unless you actually removed Akpabio from office before the campaign season and the polls, he could join another party and "deliver" his state to someone else.

Long story short, James Akpanudoedehe lost the PDP nomination race, and this being the Fourth Republic, he promptly decamped (with his godfather's blessing), leaving the PDP and joining the ACN after securing the usual guarantee that he would be the ACN's candidate. There is nothing ideological about it; both parties ideology is to acquire office and to use office to financially benefit political patrons and clients.

I doubt there were any new personal political connections either.

The ACN supremo, ex-Governor Tinubu is only interested in placing all the Yoruba-majority states under his thumb; he benefits from having a "heavyweight" in Akwa Ibom give the ACN the deceptive appearance of a pan-Nigerian outlook. For a while, the semi-retired insurgent Mujaheed Dokubo-Asari was in line to be the controlling influence of the ACN in Rivers State, before he was forced out by intra-party rival Tonye Princewill. Having Attah (for all his corruption allegations) be the force behind ACN in Akwa Ibom is a step up from all that.

Ex-Governor Attah, on his part is a dyed-in-the-wool PDP man who is only interested in controlling his Akwa Ibom fief. I don't know what Attah's plans are. He may intend his machinery in the state to take the ACN name for convenience, or he may intend James Akpanudoedehe to return to the PDP fold should he triumph at the polls. In reality, if Akpanudoedehe wins he would most likely turn against Attah and make a similar deal with Tinubu to whatever arrangement brought Chris Ngige into the ACN after his battles with the godfathers of the Uba Family in Anambra. In quite a few states, the one-on-one battles between godfathers and ex-godsons has mutated into three-way contests after replacement godsons did the same thing to the godfather as was done by the prior godson.

Yeah, I know you are thinking.

But be honest with yourself. This is the sum total of our politics.

There are no alternative policy options on debate. Just sets of hungry men, salivating over the national cake and pulling strings in the background to dictate results regardless of citizen preferences.

Anyway, my point is this ....

James Akpanudoedehe was arrested on the orders of Governor Godswill Akpabio. The arrest was NOT motivated by an interest in law-and-order, public security or justice. Governor Akpabio opportunistically took advantage of the violence to lock up his strongest opponent in the 2011 "Elections", and to tie the man's resources up with fighting a criminal indictment.

A lot of citizens don't care about such distinctions, and would be happy enough to see anyone arrested for the violence. But understand my basic problem with Nuhu Ribadu: If an agency like the EFCC removes a corrupt politician that is opposed to President Obasanjo, in order to pave the way for a corrupt politician that supports Obasanjo, then we are still left with a corrupt politician in charge of the treasury -- nothing has changed. Put it in more simplistic terms: If you replace a politician who steals $1 million a month and opposes Obasanjo with a politician who steals $1 million a month and supports Obasanjo, then you have not made any difference to the fiscal outcome.

Both sides, Akpabio's and Attah's, are willing to hire thugs and to use those thugs to wreak violence. Both sides, Akpabio's and Attah's, think their personal rivalry is more important than the safety and security of the people of Akwa Ibom. If one side "wins", the people of Akwa Ibom are still left with a Governor that values his political ambitions far more than any considerations of citizens' safety and security. There are implications to having people like that as governors; it is no surprise that the Niger-Delta has witnessed record levels of political violence since the launch of the Fourth Republic in 1999. You might think that it would be peaceful if one warlord "prevails" over another, but when people make peaceful change (i.e. democratic elections) impossible, they make violent attempts at change inevitable. It is a situation that generates an endless number of warlords willing to try their luck and chance whoever happens to be the dominant warlord.

If Governor Akpabio wins this year's election, he will attempt to impose a godson on the state in 2015 .... and will then be obliged to go to war with that godson almost immediately as soon as the 2015 Election ends.

Akwa Ibom will be back to square one.