PDP dominance grows

News that yet another governor will switch parties to join the PDP.

Abia State Governor Theodore Orji is apparently having the usual godfather-vs-godson wahala with Abia's ex-Governor Orji Uzor Kalu. If he goes on to make the switch, he will join Bauchi Governor Isa Yuguda (ANPP --> PDP) and Zamfara Governor Mahmud Shinkafi (ANPP --> PDP) in making the switch. All politicians who make such switches tend to be godfathers/patrons in their own right (particularly state governors who can use the state treasury to become the state's leading patronage distributor), and usually bring with them a phallanx of "supporters" (i.e. clients of their patronage); for example, Mahmud Shinkafi took Zamfara State's federal and state lawmakers with him from the ANPP to the PDP (note that each of those lawmakers is either the nexus of a separate concentric set of patron-client relationships, or serves as a proxy for one such nexus led by someone else).

Theodore Orji's putative defection from the PPA (Progressive People's Alliance, or something like that) to the PDP is probably being keenly watched by ex-Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu of Lagos.

The PPA was not so much as party as it was a sole proprietorship, owned and operated by former Abia governor Orji Uzor Kalu. As of 2007, political factions allied to President Olusegun Obasanjo had taken over the PDP, driving out Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, to whom then-Governor Kalu was allied. Kalu was further affected in 2007 by constitutional term limits and the failure of "Third Term" agendas, so Kalu was faced with political (and hence patronage) irrelevance. He could not act as a godfather (i.e. thus transferring the state treasury to a chosen godson) within the now-Obasanjo-controlled PDP, so he left the PDP and created his own personal political party, the PPA. And after 8 years as a governor, using the power the state treasury to cement his status as the "owner" of the state, and garnering some measure of popularity through populism (notably pouring funds into Enyimba Football Club of Aba, powering the club to multiple national titles as well as two African Champions League titles), Orji Kalu controlled Abia so totally, it did not matter what Obasanjo, Iwu and Ribadu did. The aftermath of the 2007 elections saw Orji Kalu retain control of Abia (via new Governor Theodore Orji), and extend his power into neighbouring Imo State (via new Governor Ikedi Ohakim). Before the partition of new states' creation, Abia and Imo had been a single state, Imo State.

There are parrallels between ex-Governor Orji Uzor Kalu and ex-Governor Bola Tinubu of Lagos State. Like Kalu, Tinubu was a two-term, 8 year governor, who used his power to near-feudal control of his state. Like Kalu, Tinubu practiced a form of populism that garnered as close to genuine popularity among the people he governed as has been managed in the Fourth Republic. Long before the Obasanjo/Atiku war hurt Kalu's PDP prospects in Obasanjo's second term, Tinubu was the last-man-standing in the Alliance for Democracy after some crafty politics by President Obasanjo (and Vice-President Atiku, after all, they were still allies in 2003).

Ahead of the 2003 elections, Obasanjo used ethno-regional appeals to woo and coopt the Alliance for Democracy, who (at the time) controlled all of the southwestern states. The AD kept their end of the bargain, marshalling their political machines to work for his presidential victory. President Obasanjo reneged on his side of the deal; never known as a forgiving man, Obasanjo remembered how the AD railed against him in 1999. When the dust settled, Obasanjo's political alliances had politically annihilated the AD. A new group of governors, contemptous of the AD and loyal to Obasanjo and the PDP, took over all of the southwestern states bar one.

The lone surviving AD-held state was Lagos State, where populism had buoyed Tinubu's iron political control with a degree of genuine popularity. Where Orji Uzor Kalu later faced marginalization within what was ostensibly his party, Bola Tinubu was an "opposition" party leader to begin with (he, Buhari and eventually Atiku constituted President Obasanjo's real opposition, regardless of the composition of the National Assembly). Shedding himself of the hindrance of being junior to the senior leadership of the AD/Afenifere, Bola Ahmed Tinubu (like Orji Kalu) founded his own political party, the Action Congress, a de facto sole proprietorship owned and operated by Bola Tinubu.

After the 2007 elections, Tinubu was able to impose his chosen successor in Lagos State (Governor Babatunde Fashola), as Orji had done in Abia. Tinubu also extended his grip to a second state. Where Orji Kalu claimed Imo, Tinubu claimed Edo State through the post-election judicial victory of former trade unionist Governor Adams Oshiomhole (and Tinubu is in with a chance of claiming a third state, as Governor Olusegun Mimiko of Ondo State is flirting with leaving the Labour Party and joining the AC).

The final, and potentially crucial similarit between Bola Tinubu and Orji Kalu is the fact that the relationships of both men with their chosen/imposed successors in Lagos and Abia is currently strained. There is a perception in Lagos State that Tinubu is using third-parties to attack Fashola, presumably because he thinks Fashola is getting a little too big for his britches. Fashola continues to profess his loyalty to Tinubu, but in the light of Theodore Orji thinking about decamping to the PDP .... who knows?

By the way ....

Former PDP Deputy National Chairman (Southwest) Bode George played a key role in Obasanjo's takeover of the southwestern states in 2003, and was even more influential in Obasanjo's "do-or-die" imposition of the Yar'Adua/Jonathan tandem on Nigeria in 2007. Bode George owed Obasanjo a lot; two years prior to the 2003 Elections, in 2001, Obasanjo had appointed George the Chairman of the Board of the Nigerian Ports Authority, a position that gave Bode George plenty of opportunity for self-enrichment. Interestingly, in 2004 the then-Nuhu-Ribadu-led EFCC received "dozens of petitions", asking them to investigate Bode George's tenure as NPA chairman. Ribadu played his usual role in the extortionary politics of the day, creating an active investigation of Bode George that was then placed in stasis; George would remain a free man with no fear of prosecution, but if he crossed Obasanjo, Ribadu could have him arrested in an instant.

Two years after President Umaru Yar'Adua took office (and two years after Yar'Adua sacked Ribadu as part of his -- Yar'Adua's -- process of Fourth Republic godson rebellion), Bode George was finally brought to justice. Ribadu attempted to subtly exculpate himself and claim part of the credit, but banner headlines like "George gets 28 years in jail", were deceptive; George and his co-defendants were sentenced to 2 years for each of 7 counts, and six months for each of 28 counts ... to run concurrently.. "To run concurrently" is a fancy legal way of saying George and his compadres were sentenced to exactly 2 years in prison.

If two years seems like a slap on the wrist for the "disappearance" of =N=85 billion (Bode George and company were "acquitted" of the more serious charges) in a country where another, less-powerful criminal was sentenced to ten years for stealing the sum of =N=150 thousand, it nevertheless served its purely political purpose. By sacking Obasanjo stalwarts like Nuhu Ribadu, prosecuting (albeit lighthandedly) a few like Bode George, and threatening others like "Mr Fixer" Tony Anenih with indictments/prosecutions, the post-2007 political order was sending a message to ex-President Obasanjo to lay low and to not try to continue running the show from behind the scenes.

As Obasanjo himself knows (having turned on Atiku, the AD/Afenifere and ex-President Ibrahim Babangida), the rule in the Fourth Republic is godsons (in this case President Yar'Adua) always turn against their godfathers.

The question today is who is pulling Acting President Goodluck Jonathan's strings.