Bloomberg quoted Mohammed Meziane, head of the Algerian state-owned energy company Sonatrach, as saying the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) will begin gas deliveries to Europe in 2015. This is current as of the 2nd update of the story on their site.
But yesterday's (Nigerian) Guardian quotes Rilwanu Lukman, Nigeria's Minister of Petroleum Resources, as saying work on building the pipeline will begin in 2015. Lukman is quoted as saying the Niger-Delta crisis will have ended by then. What he did not say is 2015 is consistent with the Yar'Adua administration's pledge to postpone export-oriented gas projects until 2014 in order to give priority to domestic energy supply needs.
Much of what I wrote in my blog post remains true, though. For all I hear about "state of emergency", I do not see any real urgency in our policy-making or policy execution. Look, we need to move away from the "big grammar" about bundling and unbundling, move away from name changes (NEPA to PHCN), move away from World-Bank-and-IMF-financed facade changes in regulatory frameworks, and set aside the Obasanjo-era paddy-paddy deals of the kind that gave rise to Transcorp.
We need power plants. As many as possible, generating as much power, from as many different platforms (including nuclear) as possible.
Yes, I said nuclear too. If the current socio-political situation is not conducive for safe nuclear power generation, then perhaps we should hyper-prioritize transformative reform? In earlier posts I have mentioned the starting point to any discussion of reform. We are not even talking about the starting point. Instead we are stuck fighting each other over crumbs, and arguing about nonsense. Millions of dollars are spent searching for crude oil in the north-east of the the federal republic, when it is long past time for nuclear power plants in the northern savannah (feeding off Chadian, Nigerien and Nigerian uranium processed in Nigeria) to complement the gas-and-crude complex of the Niger-Delta.
We need an expanded national grid to move the new power generated from producer to consumer .... and to begin the process of connect the grids from Senegal in the west to Kenya in the east.
Kai, we are not even at square one!
The conversation is still about how to build infrastructure to evacuate raw natural resources to Europe, and not about infrastructure that would create an integrated nuclear power industry binding Nigeria, Chad and Niger. And yes, I know Chad and Niger are in an even bigger mess than we are, but the day Nigeria starts to value these two countries as being strategically important to our economic (and power generation) future is the day we start pursuing aggresive policies to restore stability in our next-door neighbours (instead of effectively ignoring them, while prattling about being a "Giant" that brought peace to Liberia and Sierra Leone).
Rilwanu Lukman is giving speeches about how TSGP will ensure energy security for Europe. Energy security for Europe? What about Nigeria? Africa? Our crude oil output has dropped precipitously because of instability in the Niger-Delta, and the man is talking about energy security for Europe.
Haba!
Lukman does say the TSGP will help in the development and integration of the economies of the three transit countries, but where is the development in yet another project for export raw natural resources to Europe?
Is there something they are not saying? Maybe the TSGP will take gas to industries and power plants in the Kano-Kaduna-Zaria triangle, and only the balance will continue on to Europe? If this will happen, shouldn't someone mention it?
I need to hear of a benefit to Nigeria beyond the few billion we will get for exporting raw gas ... because we stand to make hundreds of billions MORE in expanded GDP if we used that energy as an input to increase economic productivity and output in Nigeria.
I stress again that I am not opposed to international trade, or to Nigerian exports of gas. But there is a way to do it strategically, an equilibrium (in the textbook sense) where we export at a point "P" where we maximize the wealth derivable from the optimum balance of exports and imports.
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