Amalgamation Day in Lagos, 1914

Amalgamation Day in Lagos, 1914

04 August, 2010

Strange Days at the Nigerian Stock Exchange

The word "oligarch" has a particular meaning in Nigeria. It is a pejorative term, used by certain commentators in the South of the federal republic to refer (by way of barely concealed insut) to a section of the Nigerian political class that happens to hail from the Northern states, and which they accuse of various conspiracies against the federal republic.

None of these commentators ever explains what differentiates these northern "oligarchs" from their southern counterparts. They seem ... well ... the same to me.

It kind of ruins the word "oligarch". In its textbook, dictionary sense, "Oligarchy" is a good word to describe all of Nigeria. When we talk about godfathers, Big Men, army generals, plutocrats, ethnic/religious champions and warlords, etc, etc, we are talking about "oligarchs". For example, Andy and Chris Uba of Anambra State are textbook/dictionary "oligarchs", as was the late Lamidi Adedibu of Oyo State.

Using the word "oligarch" the way European and North American conspiracy theorists use the words "Illuminati", "Bilderberg Group", "New World Order" or "Freemason", is a disservice to honest dialogue.

It is unfortunate that the government (back during the late President Yar'Adua's administration) had to publicly deny allegations that Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, CBN Governor, was pursuing a "Northern Agenda" in his approach toward sanitizing the Nigerian banking industry. For some people, the fact that a Hausa President replaced an Igbo man (Prof. Charles Soludo) with a Hausa man as boss of the Central Bank of Nigeria, was evidence enough of a "cabal" of "oligarchs" pursing an "agenda".

The internet tends to highlight the views of extremists. From football to politics to business news, the "reader comments" sections on the websites of Nigerian newspapers and magazines have tended to have the obligatory accusations directed at "Mallams" or some other euphemism for northerners.

Of course, ethnic bigotry runs in every direction; just today, I read a response/comment to an article on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (of which Ndi Okereke Onyiuke, an Igbo, is Director-General) to which one reader responded by accusing "Igbos" of being behind the drug trade, kidnapping and (in the writer's view) the Nigerian Stock Exchange.

Censorship can be self-defeating in that it could be deceptive, giving us a sense of complacency about inter-ethnic relations when bigotry still stalks the land, however I must say I am disappointed by those Nigerian newspaper websites that don't seem to have gatekeepers or moderators to block or delete reader-generated content that crosses the line of decency.

In any case, that article about the Nigerian Stock Exchange prompted this blog post.

Alhaji Aliko Dangote is an "oligarch" in the Russian and Eastern European sense of the word, or more correctly in the sense in which Western Europeans and North Americans mean the word when they apply it to Russia and Eastern Europe.

Dangote is fabulously wealthy, probably the singely richest human being in the history of the lands now enclosed by the borders of the federal republic. He is a dollar billionaire, named on the Forbes list (the financial downturn has been rough on him; Forbes estimated he was worth $2.1 billion in 2010, down from their 2008 estimate of $3.3 billion).


Alhaji Aliko Dangote

Like the Russian oligarchs, Dangote profited from a close relationship with the central government and with the powerful politicians who controlled the central government. And he too benefited from the privatization of previously government-owned corporations and assets.

As with the Eastern European oligarchs, Dangote is now the head of a huge, sprawling corporate conglomerate.

I only have access to English-language news outlets from Western Europe and North America, so I do not have a reliable idea of what the people in post-Communist Europe think about their oligarch. The impression I get from the sources I have access to is of a persistent cloud of suspicion hanging over them, a silent, unstated accusation of malfeasance.

The same sort of cloud follows Dangote. He is not the first Nigerian Big Man to profit from the unaccountable, unregulated, secretive, dubious nexus between Nigerian politics and Nigerian business. Over the last 50 years, constitutionality, rule of law, accountability, justice and (most importantly) even-handed law enforcement have been ... shall we say discretionary at best (the narrow self-interest of those who have "captured" the state trumping principle as a decisive factor) and nonexistent at worst? Aliko Dangote has not decided (as of yet) to try for a political career of his own (unlike, for example, Chief Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu or the late Moshood Abiola), but he makes sure he is in the good books of Any Government In Power (A.G.I.P.) and otherwise focuses on working the system for profit. The power of government has always distorted markets, and he who controls or has access to this distortionary power, can reap great benefits in our distorted, dysfunctional, rentier, clientelist economy.

Dangote, who has been battling attempts to void his election as President of the Nigerian Stock Exchange Council, recently accused the Nigerian Stock Exchange of being technically insolvent, a claim that has attracted the attention of the Senate.

This issue, in and of itself, is something that must be investigated, the truth ascertained, and action taken ... either against the management of the NSE (who would be guilty of falsifying financial reports, if this is true) or against Dangote (who would be guilty of libel, slander, defamation or whatever lawyers would call it, if it is not true).

It should be noted that Dangote and his friend-turned rival Femi Otedola (worth $1.2 billion in 2009 according to Forbes) only last year traded accusations of share-price manipulation. Otedola accused Dangote of driving down the share price of Otedola's African Petroleum, while Dangote accused Otedola of driving down the price of Chevron. Muddying matters somewhat, Otedola was also accused of inflating the share price of AP in the first place, and just to add to the Investments and Securities Tribunal essentially overturned the earlier decision by the Securities and Exchange Commission that Dangote's Nova Finance and Securities Limited had indeed manipulated AP share prices downward (see SEC findings here).


Femi Otedola

The long and short of all of these accusations and counter-accusations was the drop in the value of Otedola's net worth, from $1.2 billion to $500 million, meaning he dropped off the Forbes billionaire list.

The former friends' private war grew out of a gentleman's agreement. Essentially, Dangote supposedly agreed to keep out of the oil importation and marketing business, and Otedola allegedly agreed to stay out of commodities importation and manufacturing. When Dangote moved to acquire the Nigerian assets of Chevron, it meant "war". Otedola announced his intention to invest in manufacturing and to import commodities at prices which undercut Dangote's. Anyone who has taken 101-level economics can understand why Dangote, who had a near-monopoly at the time, was able to charge such high prices, and concomitantly why Otedola could so easily threaten to undercut him.

Both men were godsons of President Obasanjo; had their quarrel started during the Obasanjo II administration, I am sure he would have stepped in as referee, made a firm decision, and milked both men for a share of their profits. Alas, this confrontation went big-time after Obasanjo stepped down, after Obasanjo's hand-picked successor, the late President Yar'Adua, began to distance himself himself from his erstwhile godfather. Ex-President Obasanjo's political machine had manipulated the 2007 election in the expectation that Obasanjo would run the government from behind the scenes, like a puppet-master; it would be a Third Term de facto, if not de jure, and (with all due respect) Yar'Adua and current-President (then-Vice President) Goodluck Jonathan were picked because of their perceived weakness in the rough-and-tumble world of Nigerian politics -- they were expected to be reliant on Obasanjo's machine for their political survival, but in the usual manner of the Fourth Republic (which will be remembered for its pervasive godfather-versus-godson wahala), Yar'Adua moved to weaken Obasanjo almost from the start of his presidency.

But I am digressing.

The point is .... when Dangote says something, you have to stop and ponder it. Whatever he says or does is said and done from the canny perspective of a man who knows how to play the Nigerian system for profit.

He is probably telling the truth. In fact, one of the funny things about Nigeria (funny in a sad way) is the system is so dysfunctional and distorted, that any time two Big Men have a quarrel, each one of them can legitimately and truthfully accuse the other of any number of crimes that were never investigated, much less prosecuted because though such acts are criminal they are also the normal working of the system (everyone, even the police know that that is the way it is supposed to be).

The Director-General of the NSE, Mrs Ndi Okereke Onyiuke has never inspired confidence in me. She is a Peoples Democratic Party stalwart, planted in the NSE to oversee the normal (i.e. dysfunctional), workings of our markets.

Onyiuke has questions to answer regarding the crises in the Nigerian Stock Market in the last three years, as does Musa Al-Faki (Ms Oteh's predecessor as SEC Director-General) and Professor Charles Soludo (the immediate past Governor of the Central Bank). These administrators and regulators watched a giant bubble inflate to astronomic proportions (particularly in the banking sector), did nothing to slow or stop it, and indulged the politicians and plutocrats rather than press them to prepare a so-called soft landing for the financial, securities and equities markets. And Ms Onyiuke's role in the creation of Transcorp, indeed her ownership of shares in the firm, only highlighted concerns about unethical (and possibly illegal) linkages between government and business.


Mrs. Ndi Okereke Onyiuke

Onyiuke's spokesman has denied Dangote's accusations.

In its reaction the NSE General Manager, Mr. Sola Oni, said: “The Nigerian Stock Exchange is not insolvent. The organisation is meeting all its obligations as at when due.

“The staff are not owed salaries and allowances. The retirees receive their cheques promptly. The Exchange does not owe any bank or individual. If there is any form of owing it could be that such a company is handling project that has not been completed. Even at that, the Exchange must have made some pre-payment.

“No organisation in Nigeria is fully insulated from the effects of global market down turn. The Exchange is certainly affected


On the other hand, Dangote accuses Mrs Onyiuke of robbing Peter to pay Paul in order to hide the NSE's financial difficulties.

He accused NSE’s management of dipping its hands into the finances of its subsidiary, the Central Securities Clearing System’s (CSCS) accounts to borrow N 900 million to support its cash deficit position.

Dangote further revealed that the NSE is indebted to the tune of N 119.5 million to Accenture auditing firm and that it has decided to stop additional work on executive selection, trading platform selection completion and implementation of the operating model for which the Exchange engaged its services, until all outstanding invoices are duly paid.


The fact that I don't trust Onyiuke does not necessarily mean Dangote is telling the truth. And the fact that Dangote has been accused of unethical practices in his business dealings does not mean he is not telling the truth.

So who is telling the truth?

If we can't trust the word of the NSE, SEC or the Investments/Securities Tribunal, then your guess about what is true and what isn't is as good as mine.

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